“Is it time for a house short sale? Do I need to do that?” Those are the questions that we all ask ourselves. As an investor in single family homes, I have to look at all the options from a business point of view and leave out the emotional attachments. I knew that with the housing downturn, some of my homes were worth much less than I owed on the loans. So I put pen to paper and here’s how I decided what to do.
1) Get a Great Realtor: I would interview a number of them, and find a good fit for your situation. Preferably, they have a degree in finance and a brokers license in real estate. Don’t be afraid to ask the tough questions, because its your life, your house short sale, and your money! You don’t want to find someone that will make a bad situation worse! Be careful of the referral service mills too. They always ask for money up front, and that should be a big red flag! All of the legitimate realtors I found will never ask you for a dime. They pay all costs including advertising, and the bank pays them a finders fee.
2) What’s the Home Worth Today? Get a good valuation from your realtor. In reality, when you meet to talk, she should already have the comps ready to hand you. Don’t waste your money on a official appraisal as it won’t be used anyway. This is one situation where you want to be incredibly realistic, even pessimistic about the value, and not succumb to emotional attachment for the house. The more upside down you are in the loan, the greater chance for success in your house short sale.
3) Judgement Time: This is where you determine if you need a house short sale. Take your total loan amount, and subtract the present value of the house. Not what you think it’s worth, but how much you can get for it TODAY. This is how much your “Upside Down” in the loan. Then, figure your annual expenses including a year’s worth of payments, taxes, insurance, maintenance, and repairs. This is your “Yearly Cost” to keep the house. Now, take the amount your upside down and multiply it by 8%. We will assume the best case scenario. In a FAST appreciating market, this is how much your house value would go up each year, if the housing bubble was over today. (yeah right!) We’ll call this number: “Appreciation per Year.” Finally, divide the Upside Down amount, by Appreciation per Year. This is how many years it will take for you just to break even with the amount you owe on your loan. No profit, no realized appreciation. Compare the Number of Years to Break even with Yearly Cost to Keep the House. Can you hold out for that long? Does it still make sense to hold on? Or would letting it go make more sense?
To illustrate: Let’s say you bought a duplex with a $1,000,000 loan. In just one year it has depreciated drastically and will sell for only $800,000. Is it a good idea to seek a short sale?
Upside Down: $800,000 – $600,000 = $200,000 Annual Costs: Includes all yearly expenses = $60,000 Appreciation: Assuming a booming market = $200,000 x .08 = $16,000
Conclusion: It will take 12.5 years of appreciation at 8% per year, just to regain the depreciation or loss of the original value. It will cost $60,000 a year for 12.5 years just to break even. Most of the accruing interest still won’t have been paid off and full ownership won’t be any closer after 12.5 years of suffering. In 12.5 years, $750,000 will have been paid in mortgage payments and expenses, just get back to the original loan value.
You don’t have to guess what I decided to do. My numbers we’re very similar to these. I know I’ll take a hit on my credit, but for me, 2 -3 years to rebuild my credit is a lot better than 12.5 years of suffering. I’m going to call it quits and live to fight another day.
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